2006 World Issues-Demograpics

World Issues- 2006 Herb Meyer- Former CIA deputy, author. He was the first person to publicly predict the fall of the USSR.

In the 1600’s Judaism and Christianity reconciled with the modern world. They accepted that some truth can be found in science.

Islam was founded in the 600’s AD- and when the radical elements of Islam have power, they historically attack the Western World.

September 11, 1683- Radical Islam fought the West- Islam lost

September 11, 2001- The 3rd attack by radical Islam on the Western World. Islam has not yet reconciled with the modern world.

What we are doing in Iraq and Afghanistan is trying to give the moderates of the Islamic world a chance to rule. Whenever the extremists in the Moslem world rule- they attack the west and oppress the rights of women.

Demographics-

To maintain stable numbers in a population, the society has to have an average of 2.1 children per woman.

We are witnessing demographic issues unprecedented in history- we are no longer having children and this could have GRAVE consequences on our societies.

The European culture is dieing. In Europe…

1 out of every 7 couples are married

Many are what they call DINKS = double income, no kids

There is almost a perfect correlation between faith and the number of children a society will produce.

Germany- 1.3 births per woman- the number of deaths in Germany now exceed births.

In many / most European countries they cannot work more than a 35 hour work week or they will get fined.

10 weeks of vacation is mandatory in most European countries- 17 weeks vacation required in the Netherlands.

Europe is bringing in Moslem immigrants to keep their economy going. The Moslems have a saying- you may beat us on the battlefield, but we will beat you in the bedroom. They are doing a great job of this in Europe.

Moslems have a higher birth rate than any other group in the world.

Europe is now 10% Moslem- many are calling it Eurabia. 40% of people under the age of 30 in most major European countries are Moslem. The European culture as we know it is dieing.

Many of the large European cities are becoming very dangerous.

There is more anti-Semitism in Europe today than their was before World War 2- which does not make sense because there are few Jews there

In Europe the wait is 1 year for a plumber to come to your home in many areas. For health care, you can no longer get certain medical procedures after a certain age. Euthanasia is and will continue to become more accepted.

In Japan- birthrate 1.29 births per woman. 2000 elementary/high schools and colleges have been closed. 300 schools close in Japan every year. I could not believe this statistic when I heard it. There will be 50-60 million fewer Japanese in 2020 than there are today.
Japanese real-estate values have decreased every year for the past 14 years.

The day in Japan is rapidly coming when the Japanese will not be able to provide for their old. There has been talk of Japan having to ship some of their old to the Philippines to be taken care of by them.

USA

2.0 births for woman-

Caucasian in USA- 1.6 births per woman
Hispanic in USA is 2.75 births per woman

Hispanics are doing something that no other immigrant group in America has done- they are coming to the USA and voting republican and trending more that way all of the time. The republicans do not want to stop immigration, if things continue as they are, the Hispanic vote will prevent a democrat from being elected president any time in the near future.

The USA still has the most vibrant economy on the planet- and the gap between the USA and other economies is actually growing. The economy is actually more vibrant than it appears to be. Many jobs that are claimed to being shipped over-seas are actually being reclassified. For example- General Motors used to run the cafeteria at their plant, this required GM employees that were union workers. GM has since outsourced the cafeteria to Aramark- they specialize in catering etc… GM no longer has to employ people for their cafeteria- the Union then reports that jobs are being lost “over-seas” but they are actually being lost to Aramark and other smaller companies like them…

The USA economy is becoming more efficient through specialization. IMB is no longer making the entire computer- Intel is now making the chips- but Intel is no longer making the entire chip- another company specializes in etching the chips etc… This process makes our economy more efficient and also decreased bureaucracy. This also allows for more ownership because what one large company used to do to make a computer, many smaller companies have replaced in a more efficient manner, with a lower price and a better quality end result.

Specialization is seen in many ways- there are now villages of dentists in Hungary where you can fly to Hungary, get your cosmetic dentistry all done in one week instead of one year, tour Hungary and have it be cheaper than having it done here counting all of the touring, flights, lodging ect… than having it done in the USA or UK. The dentists in Hungary have more years of education than in USA. Here is an example link…

http://www.billferguson.co.uk/europa_dental/dental_tourism.htm

The reason Social change is difficult is because we have an aging population, and older people vote. They do not want change; they just want the Social Security check to keep coming and do not want to upset the apple cart. This is the same in Europe- which is very scary because they HAVE to change or their culture will cease to exist in the form that we know it.

Real Estate- He said we are on the beginning cusp of a 20 TRILLION dollar real estate boom that will be centered in the Western USA. He said that we are at ground zero for this boom. The reason for this boom is the 70 million Latin immigrants that are coming the USA in the next 30 years. He said that they will come here and need houses etc… I question the size of this opportunity because I do not see the Mexican people coming here and building homes- I see 4 families living together in an older home and sending the excess money back to their family in Mexico. I am sure over time Hispanic immigration will have an impact on real estate, but I question the timing and size of his prediction.

Problems in USA-

Education- As a country we will not be defeated by another nation, but we can defeat ourselves. The level of education in our country right now is appalling. The home schooling trends in America are promising-they show that we are not willing to tolerate the current school system in America. Hopefully this will put enough pressure on the system to change- but they are more into self-preservation than they are in to quality.

We are bankrupting future generations with our addiction to debt and spending. We have to stop this trend.

Multi-culturalism is scary- We welcome immigrants to America, but they need to become Americans, learn English, pay taxes etc… We do not want Mexicans living in America, we want Americans with a Mexican heritage and background…

Washington DC- Has become a profession- they are more interested in “keeping the game going” than they are in doing the right thing. The republicans would rather have the democrats win, than to change things considerably (and visa-versa). This way they are able to keep this cushy game going at the very high cost to the American people.

My own addition to his-

"America is great because America is good, and if America ever ceases to be good, America will cease to be great." - Alexis de Tocqueville

I think we will continue to be blessed to the degree that we are willing to obey correct principles personally, as a company and as a society .


China

China has a goal to bring 250 million people from farms into the cites within the next 20 years. In order to do this, China needs to create jobs- thus they are addicted to manufacturing. The USA on the other hand, is addicted to low prices for our goods. Because of this, the USA in China have a symbiotic relationship in which China depends on us for demand of their goods and we are dependant of them for low prices. FYI… China uses the wood from 250 million trees annually for chopsticks. China’s consumption of raw materials is lifting Latin America out of poverty. China’s development has increased demand for raw materials supplied by Latin America.

China is creating problems for themselves by having a cultural preference for males. In nature 103 boys will be born for every 100 girls. In China because they prefer boys and abort some of their girls- there are 128-118 boys born for every 100 girls (same in India) In 20 years, China will have 70 million young males who will not have women to marry. This is a problem! What good comes from 70 million young frustrated men?

Iraq and Iran

He stated that he feels the war in Iraq could go either way- it depends on if we get the moderates a chance to rule and if they are able to get the support of the people.

Iraq is a scary proposition- we do not want crazy people to have nuclear weapons. In today’s world, a small number of crazy people can kill a large number of people very quickly. Over 70% of the Iranian population is under the age of 30 and they hate their government. In the long run- the war will be decided in families and their philosophies not on the battlefield. The breakpoint is how they treat women. If they continue to oppress women, they cannot enter the 21st century.

India

India has decided that they want to sit at the head table. They have a birthrate of 1.7 children per women. They will be an economic force in years to come. They are making more significant economic change than China- watch their economy.


Business Opportunities

Develop products for aging populations- create goods for an older population that do not need to be managed by people.

We are coming to the end of the age of the traditional employer / employee relationship. We have got to teach our children entrepreneurship. This is an age that will be very productive- but at the same time can be very brutal as the fat is cut out of the economy

Poverty- More people are emerging from poverty today than in any time in the history of the world. This is due to entrepreneurship, access to capital, trade, and more free enterprise. The world in getting richer is ways that it never has before. The biggest issue we have is, how do we bring all of these people out of poverty without wrecking the planet? And we do not have the answer to that question yet… The environment will be a HUGE issues for years to come.

Small Is Beautiful Continued-

I completed and enjoyed the book Small is Beautiful. I agreed with the idea of returning to the simple, that more is not always better. I also enjoyed the chapter that talks about the unemployment problem in India. In this he talks about the fact that getting an education is a privilege that those who have an opportunity to receive should be grateful for.

“Is education a ‘passport to privilege’ or is it something which people take upon themselves almost like a monastic vow, a sacred obligation to serve other people?

The first road takes the educated young person to the need for fashion, and popularity among his peers where a lot of other highly educated people have already gone and where he can join a mutual admiration society, a “trade union of the privileged,” to see that his privileges are not eroded by the great masses of his contemporaries who have not been educated. This is one way. The other way would be embarked upon in a different sprit and would lead to a different destination. It would take him back to the people who after all, directly or indirectly, had paid for his education by the fruits of their work, he would feel honor bound to return something to them. Education should be something that makes us more able to serve others instead of a group of people who are quite prepared to receive but not prepared to give. “